3:00 - 4:25  -- Christine Clark, CCS Incite -- "Decision Analysis and Game
Theory -- When 
and How to Integrate"

Abstract

Fit and synergy between different decision models and analysis techniques
is a common question faced by company analysts and decision-makers.  This
paper outlines how the processes of decision analysis and game theory
analysis can be integrated.  Looking at the stages in a decision project
from framing to implementation the commonalities and the strengths and
weaknesses of each process will be presented.   A short case study will
explore the concepts, components, and outputs of game theory analysis and
how it can be used based on the primary source of complexity in a
decision.  There will also be a an interactive portion of the session,
giving participants an opportunity to develop a component of the game
theory "frame" to experience how to formulate a model based on this
approach.

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4:30 - 5:00  -- Paul Davis, ChevronTexaco -- "Multi-Criteria tools and DA"

Abstract

Decision analysis is recognized for the ability to assist with complex
problems incorporating risk; however it is often challenging to
communicate results to decision makers whose typical exposure to DA is
limited to tornado diagrams and S-curves.  This is further complicated
when additional decision criteria that are more difficult to quantify are
incorporated into the decision making.

ChevronTexaco's ERTC Decision Analysis Support team have used the
Criterium ¨ DecisionPlus ¨ tool to help decision makers successfully
grapple with multi-attribute decision making.  The graphical features of
the tool help decision makers visualize the impact of risk elements and
risk weighting on decision making.  Examples will be discussed where the
tool has been used successfully to supplement traditional DA analysis.

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