- Decision Analysis Affinity Group -

Please Note: All DAAG presentation documents are the property of the presenter and his/her organization.
Presentation Archive

DAAG 2009
Presenters	Topic
	Session: Decision Analysis: Professional and Profession
Carl Spetzler SDG	Should we form a distinct profession?
David Thompson Eli Lilly and Company	Heavy Non-Traditional User of Decision Science
Homie Razavi Kromite	Decision Analysis: Professional and Profession
	Session: DA in Public Service/Government
Don Kleinmuntz Strata Decision Technology	Portfolio Methods for Counterterrorism Risk Management
Hal Wilson NSA	Multiple-Objective Decision Model for Choosing Strategic Partners
Stephen Chambal Air Force Institute of Technology	Using Decision Analysis within the Operational Air Force
	Session: Portfolio Decision Making: Successes and Challenges
Carl Spetzler SDG	Best of Breed Portfolio Management - Organizational Characteristics, what it takes and what gets in the way
Jay Andersen	Measuring Flow Rates for Projects in an R&D Portfolio: A Case Study
Greg Parnell	Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis
	Session: Decision Making Under High Volatility
Steve Uhl	Using Decision Analysis to Improve Efficiency
Leslie Armentrout	Describing Risk and Uncertainty in a Volatile Economic Environment...Technical, Commercial and Macro-Economic Tension
Larry Neal	Volatility, Recency Effects and the Decision Maker
	Session: Twists in DA
Jerry Lieberman	IT Investments Are Comparable to Other Investments
Rob Kleinbaum	Retooling GM's Culture
Pat Leach	From Discovery to Successful Implementation: Predicting Orgnizational Change Preparedness
	Session: Is This Worth It? Using DA to Measure Benefit Against Risk
Marilyn Metcalf	Frame Size Matters in the Public Debate of Mammography
Bob Bordley	The Hippocratic Oath, Effect Size and Utility Theory
Jim Felli	Advances in Benefit-Risk Modeling at Eli Lilly & Co.
	Session: Case Studies
Stuart Harris Decision Frameworks	A Case of Portfolio Metamorphosis
Charles Persinger	An R&D Asset Development Decision Utilizing Lilly’s Quality Decision Process

DAAG 2006
Presenters	Topic
Dr. Greg Parnell IDI	Keynote Speaker
Gretchen Stierholz Chevron	Session: Judgement in Decision Making
Paul McNutt ConocoPhillips	Objectively Risking Project Cost and Schedule with Subjective People
Pat Leach Decision Strategies, Inc.	Should You Trust Your Gut? Psychological weaknesses in human beings when we try to make decisions in the face of uncertainty
Rakesh Sarin Anderson School of Management at UCLA	Using Decision Analysis and Behavioral Decision Making in Organizational Decisions
Bennett Levitan J&J Pharmaceutical R&D	Session: Benefit Risk Management
Joseph M. Tonning US Food and Drug Administration	Drug Safety Data Mining at the FDA
Chuen L. Yee, Saurabh Raman, and Bennett Levitan J&J Pharmaceutical R&D	Drug Adverse Event Prioritization Using Multiattribute Analysis
Phillip C. Beccue, Baxter Bioscience and Hillard G. Huntington Stanford University	An Assessment of Oil Market Disruption Risks
Ann Skudlark AT&T Labs	Session: Case Studies in Decision Analysis
Jim Weller, Chevron and Gerald Lieberman, Decision Strategies, Inc	"Winning an Exacta": Want a Step Change in Investment Returns?
Ajoy Chakrabarti Bristol-Myers Squibb	Following a Lead: Analysis of in-licensing a follow-on oncology compound
Jeff Fraser Growth Options	DA Framework for a Recurring Strategy Problem in Life Sciences - Post Patent Transition
David Caswell and William Hensley Department of Defense	How to Convince a Large DoD Agency to Use Decision Analysis for Budgeting
Frank Koch	Session: What is Value?
Dave Charlesworth	Paired Value Comparison as a Consensus-building Tool for Multi-party, Multi-attribute Decisions
Frank Koch	Interactive Game addressing – What is Value?
Stuart Harris	Session: Portfolio Decision Analysis
Jeffrey Keisler University of Massachusetts - Boston	Portfolio Decision Quality Adds Value
Phil Beccue, Baxter BioScience and Chris Dalton, Syncopation Software	Tradeoffs in Portfolio Management System Design
Eric Bickel, Texas A&M and Jim Smith, Duke University	Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model
Nancy Hough DuPont Company	Session: Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis
George F. Huhn Data Machines, Inc.	Using Monte Carlo Simulations in Multi-Attribute Portfolio Analyses
Jonathan Barzilai Dalhousie University	Preference Function Modeling
James Felli Eli Lilly and Company	Metaphor Mapping
Christine Clarke CCS Incite Inc	Session: Decision Analysis in Non-Profit Organizations
Don N. Kleinmuntz Strata Decision Technology	Using Decision Analysis to Improve Resource Allocation: Lessons from US Hospitals
Timothy P. Anderson The Aerospace Corporation	Case Study Decision Analysis – The Aerospace Corporation
Robert G. Ross Department of Homeland Security	Collaborative Public -Private Risk Assessment and Multi-Factor Decision Analysis in Vessel Traffic Safety
Marilyn Metcalf Centocor R&D, Inc.	Session: Value of Information
Steve Greidinger University of Maryland	Meta Value of Information
Ellen M. Coopersmith Decision Frameworks, Inc.	Valuing Information Plans versus Discrete Information – Setting Management Expectations to Lower Information Costs
Jack Kloeber J&J Pharmaceuticals Services	Session: Decision Analysis Potpourri
Robert Clemen Fuqua School of Business, Duke University	Who uses Decision Analysis and Why?
Jessica Hayden Centoc or R&D, Inc.	Operational Risk: Adapting an existing risk assessment process to better capture and manage operational uncertainties
Sarah Jacobi Johns Hopkins University	Quantifying and Mitigating Splitting Biases in Value Trees

DAAG 2005
Presenters	Topic	File
Frank Koch (ChevronTexaco)	Session #1: DA makes a difference
Ajoy Chakrabarti (Bristol-Myers Squibb Company)	Oncology Deal Analysis: analyzing launch scenarios & influencing deal terms
Paul McNutt (Conoco Phillips)	Conoco Phillips: Examples of DA Impact and the Impact of the Merger on DA
John Auger and Fred Krumm (DuPont and Decision Strategies Inc.)	Market-Focused Manufacturing Transformation: identifying and optimizing the real decision criteria
Greg Parnell (United States Military Academy)	Session #2: Government & Millitary Applications
Malcolm Bertoni and Kara Morgan (Food and Drug Commission)	Case Study Using DA-based Methods to Estimate Resources Spent on Drug Safety at FDA
LTC William Hensley (U.S. Army, Department of Defense)	Strategic Gap Analysis in the U.S. Intellegence Community
Michael Samsa & Ron Whitfield (Argonne National Laboratory)	Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System
Gregory Parnell (United States Military Academy)	Value-Focused Thinking for Capability-Based Planning
James Felli (Eli Lilly and Company )	Session #3: Stochastic Modelling
Gregg S. Talbert (Eli Lilly and Company )	Managing the African Elephant Population at the Indianapolis Zoo
James C. Felli (Eli Lilly and Company )	A Model for Patient Progression through Clinical trials
Gordon B. Hazen (Northwestern University )	Stochastic Trees for Medical Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
Ann Skudlark (AT&T Labs)	Session #4: Case Studies
Jim Weller, and Jerry Lieberman (ChevronTexaco & Decision Strategies, Inc.)	Texas Hold Em” – How much should you throw into the Center?
Frank R. Miller (Rohm and Haas Company)	Can an adaptable "standard" capital projects model be created for multi-company use?"
Krishna Chepuri (J&J)	2 Stage Stochastic Programming Approach for R&D Project Selection
Alfons Lieftucht (GlaxoSmithKline)	Drug delivery devices: a decision analysis
Steve Mack (Whitney, Bradley & Brown)	A Market Assessment Process that Management Can Understand
Kazuo Ezawa (Daiichi Medical Research)	Session #5: Best of INFORMS
Craig Kirkwood, A. Maltz and M. Slaven (Arizona State University and IBM)	Reconfiguring Supply Chain Decision Making at IBM
Prof. James E. Smith and Robert L. Winkler (Fuqua School of Business, Duke University)	The Optimizer's Curse: Skepticism and Postdecision Surprise in Decision Analysis
Jeff Stonebraker (GlaxoSmithKline)	Modeling the global latent therapeutic demand for Hemophilia A
Gretchen Stierholz (ChevronTexaco)	Session #6 Portfolio Management
Jane Walton (Schlumberger)	Advancing Portfolio Management using a Maturity Model
Michael Menke (HP)	Benchmarking Industry Best Practices in Portfolio Management
Dan Smith (Enrich Consulting)	Portfolio Management: Balancing the Rigor of DA with the Reality of the Organization
Jack Kloeber (J&J)	Session #7: DA Education / Tools
Jonathan Mauer (Bristol-Myers Squibb Company)	Explaining Discounting and Technical Uncertainty
Frank Koch (ChevronTexaco)	“Thirteen Days” in One Hour
Homie Rasavi (Kromite)	Powerball: Present Value, NPV, Risk adjusted NPV and Value of Information
Christopher Beck & Lifei Cheng (Merck & Co)	How to win the game - introduction to Pharmanopoly
Christine Clarke (CCS Incite Inc.)	Session #8: Expert Bias & Psychology of Decision Makers
Robert Clemen (Fuqua School of Business, Duke University)	Partition dependence in subjective probabilities: What it is and what you can do about it.
Jessica H. Hayden & Harry Eckerson (Centocor and Decision Strategies Inc)	The psychology of decision making: A discussion of classic experiments and the practical implications when facilitating a decision

DAAG 2004
Presenters	Topic	File
Jim Felli Jay Andersen	Session 1: Decision Dojo	File 1
Christine Clarke	Session 2: Decision Makers & Decision Team Needs	File 1
Lunch & Keynote Speaker - Gary Hagstrom, ChevronTexaco	"Convince Me. Why should I believe your analysis?"	File 1
Ann Skudlark	Session 3: DA Case Studies	File 1 , File 2, File 3
Stuart Harris	Session 4: Topics in Portfolio Management	File 1
Phil Beccue	Session 5: Real Options Valuation & Value of Information	File 1
Jerry Lieberman	Session 6: Ideas to Shorten the DA Process	File 1 , File 2
Lunch & Keynote Speaker: Kenny Oppemheimer,	"Oberservations on the Decision Analysis Profession Over the Past 30 Years"
Kazuo Ezawa	Session 7: DA Case Studies	File 1
Jim Felli Jay Andersen	Session 8: Decision Dojo Conclusion & Discussion

DAAG 2003
Presenters	Topic	File
Jay Anderson, Session Chair	Topics in Portfolio Management	File 1, File 2, File 3, File 4
Brent Weber, Session Chair	Session 2: DA and Six Sigma: Is any town big enough for both of them?
Ann Skudlark, AT&T, Session Chair	Session 3: DA Case Studies Ann Skudlark	File 1, File 2
David Use, Session Chair	Session 4: Practical Applications of Real Options, Value of Information, Value of Flexibility	File 1, File 2, File 3
Keynote: Speaker Tom Spradlin		File 1
Lisa Eisele	Session 5: Facilitating a DA Session: Good Tips and Tools
Theresa Mason/ Dan Johnson	Session 6: Decision Models on the Fringe of DA	File 1, File 2
Pat Leach	Session 7: Non-Traditional Uses of DA	File 1, File 2, File 3
Stuart Harris	Session 8: Presenting DA to non-DA people	File 1

DAAG 2002
Presenters	Topic	File
Chairs: Ellen Coopersmith Decision Frameworks and Brigitte Laki, ExxonMobil	Session 1: Patterns in Decision Analysis
Steven Kuemmerle, Abbott Laboratories	Patterns in Pharma DA – The Experience at Abbott Laboratories
Jessica Hayden, Boehringer-Ingelheim	Decision Analysis Application and Patterns at Boehringer-Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals
Charles Jennings, BP	Patterns in Decision Technology – DA + VE Tools Do Make a Difference!
Peter Cunningham, Decision Frameworks	Patterns in Oil Exploration & Production Value of Information Decisions
Chairs: Ann Skudlark and Chris Clarke	Session 2: Decision Analysis Case Studies
James Mitchell, Decision Strategies	Budgets are Portfolios Too!
Jeff Stonebreaker, Bayer Corporation	Using Decision Analysis to Right-size a Manufacturing Facility
Chris Clarke, CCS Incite Inc.	Decision Framing in a Non-Profit Leadership Project
Andrew Burton, Conoco	Counseling the King: The Art of Smart Decisions, 25 Centuries Ago
Richard Bayney, Bristol-Meyers Squibb	Determining the Value of an Asset for Portfolio Selection
Jim Felli, Naval Postgraduate School	Discounting Effectiveness
Chairs: Jerry Lieberman ) and Rick Bayney	Session 3: Implementation of DA Decisions
Ellen Coopersmith, Decision Frameworks & Paul Allen, Portfolio Decisions, Inc.	Implementing Decision Analysis & Project Portfolio Analysis- A Case Study & Discussion of the Issues
Bill Haskett, Decision Strategies	Mergers, Acquisitions, and Licensing: Real-Time Decision Support
Stuart Harris, GlaxoSmithKline	Three Fables from the DA Frontline
Patrick Leach, APM International	I'd Rather Be Lucky Than Good: Homogenized Milk
Chairs: Lisa Eisele and Deborah.R.Bryant	Session 4: Tools, Templates, and Visuals
Dan Johnson, Eli Lilly	Using Preference Probabilities in place of Market Forecasts
Bruce Kitchell, Conoco	The Hidden Quality Process in the Conoco Asset Management Process
Rick Marti, Nova Chemicals	TOOLBOX: Nova Chemicals Business Case Development Tool
Jonathon Mauer, Bristol-Myers Squibb	Expected IRR as a Project Prioritization Metric
Phil Beccue, Amgen	Two-Dimensional Policy Sensitivity Diagrams Convey Concise Insights
Jim Felli, Naval Postgraduate School	Javelin Diagrams
Lisa Eisele, Decision Strategies	The Visual Challenge
Chairs: David Skinner and Stuart Harris	Session 5: How to Market Internally
Jerry Liebermann, GM	Marketing DA at GM (from the panel discussion)
Kazuo J. Ezawa, Bristol-Meyers Squibb	Challenges for a new DA Group at a Major Pharmaceutical
Dewey McLemore, ChevronTexaco	Developing the DA Value Proposition
Mary Linton Peters, Strategic Decisions Group	Marketing the Services of a DA Group

DAAG 2001
Presenters	Topic	File
Dewey McLemore, Texaco	Decision Analysis Implementation at Texaco
Mark Havenhand, Novartis	Decision Analysis Implementation at Novartis
Bruce Collett, Petrous	Decision Analysis as Part of a Total Value Creation Process
David Skinner, Decision Strategies, Inc.	Integration of Decision Analysis & Value Engineering
Lisa Eisele	Integration of Tools
Mark Bonner, Conoco	Project Development/Management and D&RA
John Finnegan, Conoco	Reliability and D&RA
Garrett Brauer, Eastman Kodak	Is Price an Uncertainty or a Decision?
Mohammed Omar, Bell Canada	"Real-Time" Decision Making
Dr. Rick Bayney, Bristol-Myers Squibb	Generating Actionable Strategic Alternatives
Brent Weber, Conoco Inc.	Misapplications Introduction
Gerald Lieberman – General Motors	How Not to Get Started: Who is the Real Customer?
Brent Weber, Conoco Inc.	Value of Information Lessons
Andrew Burton, Conoco Inc.	Benevolent Subversion (BS) - a classic misapplication of DA
Misapplications I Have Known	Panel Discussion
Hugh Taylor, E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Co.	E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Co.
Rob Hallford, Eli Lilly	Eli Lilly
Gerald Lieberman, General Motors	General Motors
Jack M. Kloeber Jr, Bristol-Myers Squibb,	Building an Army Aviation Safety Portfolio Using Multiple Objective Decision Analysis, Simulation, and Portfolio Optimization
Jeff Stonebraker, Bayer	Are You Ready for the Mother (MODA) Of All Portfolio Prioritization Approaches or is SODA Still Appropriate?
Farshid Eghlidos Erickson, AT&T Labs	Unraveling Voice Over Internet Protocol (VOIP): Is It a Sound Business Strategy and Will it Fulfill Its Promises?
Stuart Harris, GlaxoWellcome	Five Essential Keys to Successful Portfolio Management
David Cook, Independent Contractor	An Oil Exploration Portfolio Management Process
Tom Spradlin, Eli Lilly	The Future of Internal Decision Consultants – Panel Discussion
Dave Charlesworth, Decision Strategies	The Future of Internal Decision Consultants – Panel Discussion
Frank Koch, Chevron	The Future of Internal Decision Consultants – Panel Discussion
Dave Charlesworth, Decision Strategies	Group Processes
Stefan Choquette, Decision Strategies	Standards and Guidance in a Dynamic Environment
Dr. Robert Bordley, General Motors	Making Decision Trees Visual & Non-Mathematical

DAAG 2000
Presenters	Topic	File
O.J. Sanchez, ExxonMobil Chemical Company	Use of DA in Strategy Development and Implementation	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Ann Skudlark, AT&T	Consumer Long Distance and Strategic Choices	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Garret Brauer, Kodak	Scenario "Lite" - Useful scenarios in 8 hours or less	Scenario PPT File, Scenario PDF
	Implementation Volley - Dozens of Implementation Tools presented by participants in one minute each	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Mark Cronshaw, MediaOne	Choice of Technology When Delay is Costly	PowerPoint File
Sabrina Watkins and Paul McNutt, Conoco	Keep the Bathwater, too: Value beyond the Strategy Product	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Stuart Harris, Glaxo Wellcome	Proof of Concept and the Value of Information	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Rob Hallford, Eli Lilly	Timing of Phase 3 Clinical, Development, and Marketing Resource Allocation	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Bill Haskett, Decision Strategies Inc.	An Emergency Facilitation in the Not-For-Profit Sector	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Rick Justice, Eli Lilly	Results & Implications from DA Practitioners Training Survey	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Sue Lisowski	Real Options in Practice: Two Examples from the Energy Industry	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Jerry Lieberman, General Motors	The Power of Options Thinking: A Manufacturing Example	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Thomas Spradlin, Eli Lilly	Lessons about Options from a Pharmaceutical R&D Project	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Sabrina Watkins & Peter Cunningham	Decision Coaching: Implementing and advancing corporate decision-making abilities.	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Frank Koch, Chevron	Real Options: So How do I Run my Business Differently	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Bob Clemen	Update on Value of DA	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Panel Discussion	Panel Discussion with one panelist each in the areas of strategy, implementation, systems, portfolio management, pure facilitation.	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Workshop	Workshop for small groups on topics of: decision boards, measurement/metrics, learning, intetgration of decision making tools	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Phil Beccue	A Decision Analytic Approach for Prioritizing 2nd Generation Molecules	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Miho Hanafusa	What has happened after -“A Brave Trial at Mitsubishi Chemical Co.”	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Garrett Brauer	DA w/Excel -	Zip 1, Zip 2
James Felli -	Evaluating the Cost-Effectiveness of Alternatives	PowerPoint File or PDF File
Ellen Coopersmith	Use of DA to Evaluate Oil Field Development Alternative

DAAG 1999
Presenters	Topic	File
Paulette Corbin, Delta Express & Gary Bush, Decision Strategies, Inc.	Delta Express Strategy - What was the value of using Decision Analysis?
Bob Kwit, Eastman Kodak	Decision Analysis Valuation Methods Used By Eastman Kodak Company
Frank Koch, Chevron	Decision and Execution Quality
Nick Pudar, General Motors	Using Decision Analysis to Make Strategic Decisions	nic1.pdf nic2.pdf nic3.pdf nic4.pdf nic5.pdf nic6.pdf
James Mitchell, TransCanada Pipelines	Valuing Decision Analysis
Jim Felli, Post Graduate Naval School	EVPI and Decision Sensitivity
Pam Uitti, Chevron	Common Traps Pitfalls When Determining the Value of Information
Sue Young, Conoco, Inc.	Prospective Customer Evaluation of Used Facilities (File 1, File2)
Des Markland, Zeneca	Drugs, Risk, & Monte Carlo	des.pdf
Doug Ballou, Pacificorp	Risk Detective-- Applications for Risk Analysis
Ann Skudlark & Khan La-ornual, AT&T	Revenue Analysis of OneMail Service
Sabrina Watkins, Conoco, Inc.	Six Hats
Gary Bush, Decision Strategies, Inc.	Parametric Modeling in Decision Analysis
Theresa Yocum, Conoco	Modeling Multiple Attribute Decisions
Sudha Dhandapani, MDM Consulting, Inc.	Decision Analysis as a Catalyst for Strategic Planning
Robert Bordley, General Motors	Decision Theory: Utility-Based versus Target-Based
Bill Haskett, Unocal	Understanding Dependency or "Balls in Space"
Fred Rolle, DuPont Consulting For Business Improvement	Developing Alternatives for Complex Strategies -- Use of Nested Strategy Tables
Bruce James, Shell Deepwater	Decision Analysis: A Critical Tool for the Development of Deepwater Petroleum	BRJames1.pdf BRJames2.pdf BRJames3.pdf BRJames4.pdf BRJames5.pdf