Presentations
Session 1 – NEW IDEAS – PUSHING THE DA ENVELOP
Patrick Leach: Everything We Know is Wrong DOWNLOAD FILE HERE
All of the logic, intuition, and metrics humans have for making decisions were developed during a time when resources were abundant, human populations were relatively small, and we could afford to focus on maximizing returns today because tomorrow always held new frontiers filled with limitless riches. We were far too wise to repeat the mistakes of the Anasazi, the Norse Greenlanders, or the Easter Islanders; Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” would assure that resources were used efficiently and wisely, that self-destructive behaviors would be weeded out and halted.
None of this is true anymore (if, indeed, it ever was). The “invisible hand” never had to deal with a world in which any piece of information – whether true or not – is instantly flashed around the globe. The primary objective of most modern societies – constant economic growth – is mathematically unsustainable. And our measures of economic value (NPV, IRR, P/I, etc.) punish exactly the type of behavior which is most closely associated with long-term success.
How do we make good decisions when everything we know is wrong?
Jim Weller: Leaping the Chasm DOWNLOAD FILE HERE
Do you have a chasm to leap? Getting management to firmly commit to institutionalize DA globally in their company is not an easy leap, but can they afford not to? Come to this session to hear a successful case study, where a management commitment to implement DA was enabled by a successful pilot project, where DA was expertly used to avoid making a poor investment.
Andy Wilkinson: DA Culture – Back to the Beginning (Presentation UNAVAILABLE)
Chevron is widely acknowledged for its advanced application and cultural adoption of decision analysis and quality. In 2011 Chevron created an entirely new regional Business Unit after it acquired the Marcellus and Utica Shale interests of Atlas Energy in north eastern USA in 2011 - an entirely functional business with its own methods, practices and business model that was now subsumed within the Chevron "empire." Although the Business Unit is to remain autonomous, it is expected to eventually become culturally indistinguishable from any other Chevron upstream entity. The challenge is that it is the adherents of Chevron culture who have been transferred into the new Business Unit who, from a minority position, face the challenge of introducing a cultural shift amid the various dynamic and competing demands of a frontier business enterprise.
Session 2 – Journey to Organizational Decision Quality
Carl Spetzler and Panel
The amazing ROI of DQ is obvious to decision professionals, but still difficult to convey to Decision Makers. That state of affairs complicates the broad adoption of DQ in organizations. While Chevron has become the poster child for enterprise level of ODQ, many organizations have embarked on the journey to various degrees of success. In this session, experienced decision professionals that have participated in these journeys will describe their organization’s journeys and share challenges and lessons learned.
Session 3 – DA Implementation Workshop I
Ellen Coopersmith and Jerry Lieberman
Final outputs from the DA Implementation breakout sessions - DOWNLOAD FILE HERE
2012 survey results - DOWNLOAD FILE HERE
Description: A workshop to engage participants in developing actionable solutions that they can implement in their own companies for the top 3 DA implementation weaknesses identified at DAAG 2011. The session will enable good dialogue and understanding of key elements necessary for successful DA implementation and how DAAG companies are progressing.
Session 4 – DA WITHOUT MONEY OR JARGON (CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD)
Marilyn Metcalf, Rob Kleinbaum and Jim Felli
This session focuses on applications of decision analysis in which monetization and jargon were deliberately avoided. These interactions were intentionally designed to help decision makers gain clarity of action through a quality decision process without monetary rollbacks, NPVs or fancy, highfalutin, special language. Without the use of money or jargons, we will explore...
... the subjective side of DA - Marilyn Metcalf
... DA as a natural act - Rob Kleinbaum
... visualization, strategy and storytelling - Jim Felli
Session 5 – Multi-Attribute DA
Ali Abbas: Perspectives on Constructing Multiattribute Utility Functions for Decision Analysis
(Presentation UNAVAILABLE)
At Stanford, I learned about constructing multiattribute utility functions using a value function and assigning a one-dimensional utility function over value. I later read about constructing utility functions over the individual attributes and combining them to form a multiattribute utility surface. My own research involved a mix of these two approaches and a variety of new methods, such as utility copula functions, one-switch independence, and utility diagrams. In this presentation, I will provide my personal perspectives on constructing multiattribute utility functions. The talk will be tailored to practitioners.
Greg Parnell: Rethinking Decision Analysis (DOWNLOAD HERE)
Over the past year, three colleagues (Terry Bresnick, Eric Johnson, Steve Tani) and I have been writing a Decision Analysis Handbook to be published in the new Wiley & Sons Operations Research/ Management Science Handbook series in early 2013. One of our premises was that decision analysts can benefit from the best practices in both single and multiple objective decision analysis. Therefore, we decided the handbook would integrate the decision analysis techniques instead of presenting them in separate sections of the book. I will share some of our insights. Then I will illustrate the application of these ideas in a Cyberspace Investment Planning Model for Air Force Space Command. The model was developed to help the Air Force develop the most “bang for the buck” for its $3.5B annual cyberspace investment over a 20 year planning horizon.
Session 6 – DA Implementation Workshop II
Ellen Coopersmith and Jerry Lieberman
A workshop to engage participants in developing actionable solutions that they can implement in their own companies for the top 3 DA implementation weaknesses identified at DAAG 2011. The session will enable good dialogue and understanding of key elements necessary for successful DA implementation and how DAAG companies are progressing.
Session 7 – PROGRESS AND METHODOLOGY IN PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
Michael Menke: Portfolio Management Benchmarking: What is being done well and what needs improvement (CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD)
A benchmarking study has concisely captured the practices and pitfalls in PM. Generic recommendations are available and should be considered by those practitioners wishing to make improvements and impacts.
Phil Beccue: Processes and Tools of Portfolio Management: A Baxter case study
(CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD)
Following the benchmarking study above, a specific case will be revealed. Phil will touch upon the evolution of portfolio methods, where the organization is today, where it is headed with regards to PM. The presentation will touch upon challenges addressed along with perspectives from others in Baxter.
Session 8 – Pharma Case Studies
Jeff Keisler: Buyup Alternatives in Portfolio Decision Analysis - (CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD)
One way that portfolio decision analysis adds value is by improving the set of alternatives from which we choose. The set of portfolio alternatives can be enriched by generating multiple alternatives involving different amounts of funding at the project level. However, this also makes the process more time consuming. Whether this is worthwhile depends on quantifiable characteristics of the portfolio. Some related model results will be discussed in terms of their implications for the use of project level buyup alternatives. Attendees will be asked about their experiences involving this problem.
Elayne Ko & Charles Persinger: The use of decision analysis for Phase 2 and Phase 3 drug development decisions (CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD)
The presentation focuses on the application of decision analysis for Phase 2 and Phase 3 Drug Development decisions. Decision analysis is widely used in the pharmaceutical industry to support drug discovery, development, and commercialization decisions. There are distinct differences in key issues relating to decision-making along the drug development process; these differences drive the focus and emphasis of the decision analysis evaluation. The characteristics of drug development in Phase 2 and 3 are explored, and the implications of applying decision analysis process for the Phase 2 and 3 drug development decisions are highlighted. The presentation leverages the experience of two decision analysis professionals from two major global pharmaceutical companies.
Greg Wayne: Reverse P&L: A Tool for Guiding Business Strategy(Presentation UNAVAILABLE)
When evaluating different alternatives, both the costs and benefits need to be assessed by the team. This is relatively straightforward in the case of defined specific assets. However, when evaluating business strategies involving undefined opportunities the benefit assessments can be challenging. In these cases a reverse P&L methodology can assist the team in identifying the highest value strategic alternative. A case study in the Diagnostics space will be presented.
Patrick Leach: Everything We Know is Wrong DOWNLOAD FILE HERE
All of the logic, intuition, and metrics humans have for making decisions were developed during a time when resources were abundant, human populations were relatively small, and we could afford to focus on maximizing returns today because tomorrow always held new frontiers filled with limitless riches. We were far too wise to repeat the mistakes of the Anasazi, the Norse Greenlanders, or the Easter Islanders; Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” would assure that resources were used efficiently and wisely, that self-destructive behaviors would be weeded out and halted.
None of this is true anymore (if, indeed, it ever was). The “invisible hand” never had to deal with a world in which any piece of information – whether true or not – is instantly flashed around the globe. The primary objective of most modern societies – constant economic growth – is mathematically unsustainable. And our measures of economic value (NPV, IRR, P/I, etc.) punish exactly the type of behavior which is most closely associated with long-term success.
How do we make good decisions when everything we know is wrong?
Jim Weller: Leaping the Chasm DOWNLOAD FILE HERE
Do you have a chasm to leap? Getting management to firmly commit to institutionalize DA globally in their company is not an easy leap, but can they afford not to? Come to this session to hear a successful case study, where a management commitment to implement DA was enabled by a successful pilot project, where DA was expertly used to avoid making a poor investment.
Andy Wilkinson: DA Culture – Back to the Beginning (Presentation UNAVAILABLE)
Chevron is widely acknowledged for its advanced application and cultural adoption of decision analysis and quality. In 2011 Chevron created an entirely new regional Business Unit after it acquired the Marcellus and Utica Shale interests of Atlas Energy in north eastern USA in 2011 - an entirely functional business with its own methods, practices and business model that was now subsumed within the Chevron "empire." Although the Business Unit is to remain autonomous, it is expected to eventually become culturally indistinguishable from any other Chevron upstream entity. The challenge is that it is the adherents of Chevron culture who have been transferred into the new Business Unit who, from a minority position, face the challenge of introducing a cultural shift amid the various dynamic and competing demands of a frontier business enterprise.
Session 2 – Journey to Organizational Decision Quality
Carl Spetzler and Panel
The amazing ROI of DQ is obvious to decision professionals, but still difficult to convey to Decision Makers. That state of affairs complicates the broad adoption of DQ in organizations. While Chevron has become the poster child for enterprise level of ODQ, many organizations have embarked on the journey to various degrees of success. In this session, experienced decision professionals that have participated in these journeys will describe their organization’s journeys and share challenges and lessons learned.
Session 3 – DA Implementation Workshop I
Ellen Coopersmith and Jerry Lieberman
Final outputs from the DA Implementation breakout sessions - DOWNLOAD FILE HERE
2012 survey results - DOWNLOAD FILE HERE
Description: A workshop to engage participants in developing actionable solutions that they can implement in their own companies for the top 3 DA implementation weaknesses identified at DAAG 2011. The session will enable good dialogue and understanding of key elements necessary for successful DA implementation and how DAAG companies are progressing.
Session 4 – DA WITHOUT MONEY OR JARGON (CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD)
Marilyn Metcalf, Rob Kleinbaum and Jim Felli
This session focuses on applications of decision analysis in which monetization and jargon were deliberately avoided. These interactions were intentionally designed to help decision makers gain clarity of action through a quality decision process without monetary rollbacks, NPVs or fancy, highfalutin, special language. Without the use of money or jargons, we will explore...
... the subjective side of DA - Marilyn Metcalf
... DA as a natural act - Rob Kleinbaum
... visualization, strategy and storytelling - Jim Felli
Session 5 – Multi-Attribute DA
Ali Abbas: Perspectives on Constructing Multiattribute Utility Functions for Decision Analysis
(Presentation UNAVAILABLE)
At Stanford, I learned about constructing multiattribute utility functions using a value function and assigning a one-dimensional utility function over value. I later read about constructing utility functions over the individual attributes and combining them to form a multiattribute utility surface. My own research involved a mix of these two approaches and a variety of new methods, such as utility copula functions, one-switch independence, and utility diagrams. In this presentation, I will provide my personal perspectives on constructing multiattribute utility functions. The talk will be tailored to practitioners.
Greg Parnell: Rethinking Decision Analysis (DOWNLOAD HERE)
Over the past year, three colleagues (Terry Bresnick, Eric Johnson, Steve Tani) and I have been writing a Decision Analysis Handbook to be published in the new Wiley & Sons Operations Research/ Management Science Handbook series in early 2013. One of our premises was that decision analysts can benefit from the best practices in both single and multiple objective decision analysis. Therefore, we decided the handbook would integrate the decision analysis techniques instead of presenting them in separate sections of the book. I will share some of our insights. Then I will illustrate the application of these ideas in a Cyberspace Investment Planning Model for Air Force Space Command. The model was developed to help the Air Force develop the most “bang for the buck” for its $3.5B annual cyberspace investment over a 20 year planning horizon.
Session 6 – DA Implementation Workshop II
Ellen Coopersmith and Jerry Lieberman
A workshop to engage participants in developing actionable solutions that they can implement in their own companies for the top 3 DA implementation weaknesses identified at DAAG 2011. The session will enable good dialogue and understanding of key elements necessary for successful DA implementation and how DAAG companies are progressing.
Session 7 – PROGRESS AND METHODOLOGY IN PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
Michael Menke: Portfolio Management Benchmarking: What is being done well and what needs improvement (CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD)
A benchmarking study has concisely captured the practices and pitfalls in PM. Generic recommendations are available and should be considered by those practitioners wishing to make improvements and impacts.
Phil Beccue: Processes and Tools of Portfolio Management: A Baxter case study
(CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD)
Following the benchmarking study above, a specific case will be revealed. Phil will touch upon the evolution of portfolio methods, where the organization is today, where it is headed with regards to PM. The presentation will touch upon challenges addressed along with perspectives from others in Baxter.
Session 8 – Pharma Case Studies
Jeff Keisler: Buyup Alternatives in Portfolio Decision Analysis - (CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD)
One way that portfolio decision analysis adds value is by improving the set of alternatives from which we choose. The set of portfolio alternatives can be enriched by generating multiple alternatives involving different amounts of funding at the project level. However, this also makes the process more time consuming. Whether this is worthwhile depends on quantifiable characteristics of the portfolio. Some related model results will be discussed in terms of their implications for the use of project level buyup alternatives. Attendees will be asked about their experiences involving this problem.
Elayne Ko & Charles Persinger: The use of decision analysis for Phase 2 and Phase 3 drug development decisions (CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD)
The presentation focuses on the application of decision analysis for Phase 2 and Phase 3 Drug Development decisions. Decision analysis is widely used in the pharmaceutical industry to support drug discovery, development, and commercialization decisions. There are distinct differences in key issues relating to decision-making along the drug development process; these differences drive the focus and emphasis of the decision analysis evaluation. The characteristics of drug development in Phase 2 and 3 are explored, and the implications of applying decision analysis process for the Phase 2 and 3 drug development decisions are highlighted. The presentation leverages the experience of two decision analysis professionals from two major global pharmaceutical companies.
Greg Wayne: Reverse P&L: A Tool for Guiding Business Strategy(Presentation UNAVAILABLE)
When evaluating different alternatives, both the costs and benefits need to be assessed by the team. This is relatively straightforward in the case of defined specific assets. However, when evaluating business strategies involving undefined opportunities the benefit assessments can be challenging. In these cases a reverse P&L methodology can assist the team in identifying the highest value strategic alternative. A case study in the Diagnostics space will be presented.